Natural Gas News: Can Prices Break 200-Day MA Resistance or Is More Downside Ahead?

Will the 200-Day Moving Average Hold Its Grip on U.S. Natural Gas Futures

U.S. natural gas futures ticked higher Friday morning but remain on track to close the week lower, weighed down by technical resistance and a bearish storage report.

Prices continue to struggle beneath the 200-day moving average for the fourth consecutive session—an indicator that’s proving pivotal in defining short-term direction. Unless bulls push through this level, the path of least resistance remains lower.

At 12:10 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.514, up $0.022 or +0.67%.

Is the EIA Storage Build a Red Flag for Summer Bulls

Thursday’s EIA report showed a larger-than-expected injection of 109 Bcf for the week ending June 6, topping the 5-year average of 87 Bcf and exceeding consensus forecasts of 108 Bcf. Inventories now sit 139 Bcf above the five-year average and within the historical range, signaling adequate supply.

While this confirms comfortable storage heading into summer, it also caps upside unless sustained heat boosts power demand. The South Central region posted the largest build at 36 Bcf, reinforcing bearish sentiment in the near term.

Can Heat Save Prices from More Downside

Weather remains a critical variable. Forecasts for June 19–26 show the southern two-thirds of the U.S. turning “warmer to hotter,” which could lift air-conditioning-driven power burns. However, NatGasWeather projects light to moderate national demand over the next week, especially with mild conditions across the northern U.S. Combined with soft electricity generation—down 2.7% y/y in the latest Edison Electric Institute report—the market remains in a wait-and-see mode.

Could Chevron’s Leviathan Exposure Spark LNG Price Risk

Traders are increasingly focused on Middle East developments after Israel’s Thursday night strikes on Iranian targets. The conflict puts Israeli offshore gas fields like Tamar and Leviathan—jointly owned by Chevron—at risk.

These fields provide gas to Israel and export volumes to Egypt and Jordan, which feed into Europe’s LNG supply chain.

Any disruption could tighten LNG flows, much like after the Tamar shutdown post-October 2023 Hamas attacks. LNG flows to U.S. export terminals rose 7% week-over-week to 14.5 Bcf/day, indicating global appetite remains firm.

Technical Outlook: Can Bulls Break the Ceiling

Natural gas remains technically boxed in. A break above the 200-day moving average could open a test of the 50-day moving average near $3.800. Still, with strong storage builds and muted short-term demand, sellers have the advantage unless heat or geopolitics intervene. Summer weather and eastern Mediterranean tensions are wildcards, but for now, the technical ceiling is holding.

Market Forecast

Short-term sentiment remains bearish-to-neutral as supply builds outpace demand. Without a confirmed bullish catalyst—such as a major heatwave or a tangible LNG disruption tied to Middle East tensions—natural gas is likely to remain rangebound with a downside bias. Traders should monitor Chevron’s exposure in the region and the 200-day MA for a potential pivot point.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.